Welcome to the Clarity Quiz!

Which of these is not like the others?

1. Annual performance reviews are too heavily influenced by the preceding couple of months.
2. It takes a lot to overcome a negative first impression.
3. The risks we consider most seriously reflect the factors and situations that burned us last.
4. Our optimism about the economy increases when the stock market strings together a few good days.
5. I always watch for bobcats out the same window.

Make your selection and then read on to see if you are correct.

If you chose #2, you are correct. The other four are all examples of the “recency effect.”

The first time I saw a bobcat from our house, he was at the edge of the woods out a north facing window. Whenever I passed that window after that, I looked again for the bobcat. I was rewarded with a second sighting about a year later. A few weeks ago, while passing a south facing window, I was startled to see a bobcat staring at me. Since then, I make frequent detours to peer out that south facing window and my pointed glances out the north facing window have diminished. This makes no sense since I have seen more bobcats on the north side, but it is not surprising. It is an example of the recency effect.

Recent events, fresh in our memories, have a way of exerting undo influence on our behavior. If you walk away from a miserable job, your job search will probably be controlled primarily by the desire to avoid a similar situation. The myriad other factors essential to job satisfaction may get short shrift. In the worst cases, a job applicant’s bitterness and fears are on display in the questions asked and a defensiveness that permeates answers during interviews. I’ve seen it and it’s not pretty.

If your last project came in late because of the software engineers, you will probably keep a closer watch over the software engineers than anyone else on your next project. Next thing you know, late suppliers clobber all hope of bringing that project in on time.

A couple of good months, whether we are talking about the stock market or employee performance, have a way of erasing ten months of bad news. Sometimes that is appropriate, sometimes it is the recency effect in full gear.

The best protection against the recency effect is to be aware of its existence. That bobcat could be anywhere. If you hope for a glimpse, you must be alert at all times, not just when passing certain windows.