Plans fail. Based on assumptions, oversights, and an unpredictable future, how can they not? So why do we so often fail to plan accordingly? Why, instead, do we “plan harder,” trying to extract more certainty from the uncertain?

The most important and most neglected aspect of planning involves identifying potential problems so you can:

• Prevent them, and
• Be prepared for those you fail to prevent

For example, you try to prevent fires by ensuring wiring is in good condition, performing safety inspections, managing combustible materials appropriately, etc.

But you also prepare for the possibility of fire with contingent actions: smoke detectors, fire extinguisher, and support for the local fire department. These contingent actions won’t prevent a fire, but you would be foolish not to have them ready should a fire occur. 

The First Step is to Identify Potential Problems
What might go wrong? Draw on past experience but also anticipate new problems. A common mistake is to concentrate only on what has gone wrong in the past.

Next, narrow your focus by considering impact and likelihood:

• Which problems would be most serious if they did occur?
• Which problems are most likely to occur?

You Can’t Prevent a Problem Without Eliminating its Cause
Once you have identified potential problems, determine the likely cause of each. It is the cause you must remove.

For example, suppose you are worried about being late for an important appointment, a potential problem with myriad possible causes. You could prevent over-sleeping by setting two alarms, targeting the wrong time by calling to confirm, and wardrobe problems by selecting clothes the night before.

Some preventive actions address multiple causes: allowing yourself plenty of extra time to get to your appointment can prevent you from being late due to traffic, parking, and wrong turns.

Focus Your Resources Wisely
You can’t prevent all problems, nor eliminate all causes, but a highly likely problem with serious consequences demands the most thorough examination of possible causes and the most comprehensive set of preventive actions.

And If Things Go Wrong Anyway?
Should a problem occur despite your preventive efforts, you need contingent actions:

• What might you be able to do to reduce the impact?
• How could you resolve the immediate situation?
• How would you minimize broader damage?

Consider the winter 2007 fiasco with Jet Blue. They were unable to prevent weather delays, but were they prepared once the delays became inevitable? Did they have contingency plans? Leaving people trapped in planes on the tarmac for many hours suggests they were not prepared.

The ripple effect, which left planes in all the wrong places and unable to get back on schedule once weather conditions improved, is indicative of no system level contingency planning either. The consequences of both were miserable for their customers, their reputation, and their shareholders.

How Will You Know When Things Have Gone Wrong?
This may seem like a dumb question, but things often go wrong long before they become obvious. And you usually don’t want them to become obvious.

For example, suppose you are a Sales Manager planning to institute commissions to increase revenue for your custom manufacturing business. A potential problem is that your sales force starts taking unprofitable business. Who is in a position to monitor the quality of new business early enough to prevent many orders destined for huge losses?

Create triggers for your contingent actions with answers to these questions:

• Who will be in a position to detect the problem as early as possible?
• At what point do they need to take action?

You have to know what to look for, how to monitor, and the criteria for activating any contingency plan.

In Summary
Protect your plan with these 5 steps:

• Identify potential problems
• Determine cause of the most serious or most likely problems
• Establish preventive actions to eliminate the most likely causes
• Identify contingent actions to reduce the impact should the problem occur anyway
• Create mechanisms to trigger contingent actions

Plans are never perfect and the consequences of being imperfect can be terrible. Make protecting your plan a habit and you will enjoy greater success and more restful sleep.